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The industry's net loss will fall to Rs 110-120 billion in 2026-27 from Rs 170-180 billion in 2025-26. While the 2025-26 losses are higher than the Rs 55 billion loss in 2024-25, the projected improvement is determined by the normalization of flight operations and a steady growth in passenger demand.
As stated by ICRA, domestic air passenger traffic will be anywhere between 175 million and 179 million in 2026-27. There was modest growth in 2025-26, during which estimates ranged from 0% to 3% because of several external disruptions.
There was a net loss of Rs 170-180 billion in 2025-26 to the aviation industry, higher than the estimated figure of around Rs 55 billion in 2024-25. Though it will go down to Rs 110-120 billion in 2026-27, all thanks to growth in domestic air passenger traffic and the normalization of operations following disruptions in 2025-26, leading to flight cancellations and refunds.
The industry's debt metric, which faded in 2025-26 with an estimated interest cover of 0.7-0.9 times from 1.8 times in 2024-25, will improve to 1.3-1.5 times in 2026-27, despite growing debt linked with new aircraft deliveries."
The current year faced headwinds from cross-border growth, weather disruptions and travel hesitancy following an aircraft accident in June 2025. Furthermore, the increased US tariffs and operational disruptions at IndiGo impacted the aviation industry in India. While there are challenges, international traffic for Indian carriers is on the rise, with 7-9% growth for 2025-26 and 8-10% for 2026-27.
With regard to fleet health, "Engine failures and supply chain challenges have brought about the grounding of 20-22% of the total industry fleet as of September 2023. The same has reduced to 13-15% as of February 2026, corresponding to 117 aircraft".
As grounded aircraft numbers decrease and fresh supply enters the market, the industry will have a more stable equilibrium between supply and demand. After December 31, 2025, the total industry fleet stood at 865 aircraft, with over 1,700 aircraft pending delivery over the next decade.
Source: Economic Times
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